Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors were anxious that an increasing war in the Middle East may hamper crude oil exports from the region. However, increases were restricted by a more positive global supply forecast.

Brent crude prices rose $1.52, or 2.06%, to $75.42 per barrel by 1211 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.58, or 2.25%, to $71.68.

“Crude oil has experienced tremendous volatility, rising by more than 5% in the international market over the last two days as tensions in the Middle East have escalated. Iran’s missile attacks on Israel on Tuesday heightened regional tensions and pushed oil prices higher. Israel’s threat of reprisal, particularly if it strikes Iran’s oil infrastructure, may bolster rising prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ wrapped up its meetings this week, maintaining its intention to boost output beginning in December. Crude oil stocks in the United States increased once more, according to a report released by the Energy Information Administration. Stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels despite predictions of a 1.5 million barrel reduction, limiting crude oil gains. “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities.

Why is this rally happening?

The market is becoming more and more concerned that Israel would attack Iranian oil facilities, which would increase the risk of Iranian reprisal. Approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through the strait, making it a crucial logistical chokepoint.

At least six people were killed as Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut early on Thursday, one day after Israeli soldiers had their worst day in a year of fighting the militant group Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran.

As Tehran cautioned that any reprisal would result in “vast destruction,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran that it would suffer consequences for its missile attack on Israel on Tuesday. This increased concerns about a potential escalation into a wider battle.

The ability of OPEC to produce oil and the reality that instability in the major oil-producing region has little impact on the world’s crude supply has allayed fears. If Israel hits Iran’s facilities, OPEC has enough spare capacity to compensate for a total loss of Iranian supply.